The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't
Nate Silver’s book, The Signal and The Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t, is a New York Times bestseller. It is a tour of modern prediction science, uncovering a surprising connection among humility, uncertainty, and good results.
Data-based predictions underpin a growing sector of critical fields, from political polling and hurricane watches to the stock market and even the war on terror. That means it’s important to ask — what kind of predictions can we trust? What methods do the most reliable forecasters use? What sorts of things can be predicted — and what can’t?
It’s an essential read for anyone interested in how data can be used to understand the future.