Revival
of the New Deal Coalition?
Social Groups and Political Change in the 1990s
Jeff
Manza and Clem Brooks
Abstract
In this study we ask whether, and in what ways, the
impact of social cleavages in American politics changed in the unusual
1996 presidential election. Has the pattern of alignment of key
social groups remained constant in the 1990s? Have over-time trends
observed in earlier years (and analyzed in our earlier work) continue
in 1996? And what bearing do the causal factors identified by researchers
as explaining elections in the 1990Æs economic voting and
the importance of "new" policy conflicts relating to gender and
family have on cleavage voting? While single elections provide
insufficient grounds for asserting the existence of new trends,
the results of our analyses have unearthed two developments that
represent dramatic extensions of past trends. The deepening of the
gender cleavage confirms our earlier finding about the importance
of labor force participation in shifting women voters towards the
Democrats. But, since labor force participation can account for
only a portion of the increase in the gender gap since 1992, other
causal factors are at work. Second, there was a sharp decline in
the class cleavage between 1992 and 1996. This is primarily the
result of nonskilled workersÆ partisan dealignment during
this election. Additional analysis provides evidence that nonskilled
workers continue to report disproportionate economic hardship under
Democratic administrations (while also failing to return to earlier,
higher levels of welfare state support in comparison with other
classes). There are thus grounds for expecting that this development
will continue into the foreseeable future.
Jeff Manza, Department
of Sociology, Northwestern University
Clem Brooks, Department of Sociology, Indiana
University
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