College-for-All:
Do Students Understand What College Demands?
James E. Rosenbaum
Abstract
This paper examines whether youth understand what is required to
attain their college plans. An analysis of a survey of 2000 high
school seniors finds that many youth believe they can attain their
plans even if they do poorly in high school, and these beliefs strongly
predict lower effort in high school. However, an analysis of the
High School and Beyond 1982 seniors finds that while poor high school
grades have little effect on whether students attend college, they
cut college degree attainment in half. Over 80% of students with
poor grades failed at their college plans in the next ten years.
Grades have a strong independent influence on educational attainment,
net of SES, ethnicity, and test scores. Indeed, grades are the single
largest influence in affecting whether students attain their plans,
and grades are even more important for blacks than for whites. If
students could change one attribute in high school to make their
plans come true, they should improve their grades. These findings
suggest that "college-for-all" norms create large opportunity costs
for high school students. Three policy reforms are suggested. High
schools should provide clear information on the effects of high
school grades on college success rates, they should form linkages
with colleges, and they should prepare students for back-up career
options if their college plans are unlikely to succeed.
James E. Rosenbaum, School of Education
and Social Policy, Northwestern University
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