Initial
Welfare Spells: Trends, Events, and
Duration, with Implications for Welfare Reform
Johanne
Boisjoly, Kathleen Mullan Harris, and Greg J. Duncan
Abstract
A mother's initiation of welfare receipt is a key event for understanding
the dynamics of welfare receipt and the likely consequences of welfare
reform legislation passed in 1996. Using 28 years of data from the
Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we conduct a number of related
analyses of first welfare spells. We first examine trends in the
number and duration of first welfare spells. As with the size of
the more general AFDC caseload, we find in the late 1980s increases
in both the number of initial spells and in the duration of those
spells.
Second, we examine trends in events and demographic characteristics
associated with the initiation of first welfare spells. Not surprisingly,
we find that young age, out-of-wedlock first births and, in particular,
never-married marital status are predictive of longer welfare receipt.
However, trends in neither the frequency of these conditions and
events nor in the welfare durations associated with them account
for the increasing caseloads of the late 1980s.
Third, we use recent PSID data containing monthly patterns of
welfare receipt beginning in 1983 to explore the likely effects
of a two-year limit on the combination of welfare without employment
and a five-year limit on total receipt. W e find that about 13%
of first-time receipients will reach 60-month time limits with a
single continuous spell, and an additional 15-20% will reach the
60-month limit within ten total years. In the case of 24 months
of receipt and no work, the comparable figures (about 20% right
away and 40% within eight years) are higher but in the same proportion.
We explore the issue of interstate mobility and find that 13.6%
of receipients with five or more years of receipt move between states
at least once between initial receipt and meeting their five-year
limits.
Johanne Boisjoly,
University of Quebec at Rimouski Kathleen Mullan Harris, University
of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Greg J. Duncan, School of Education,
and Social Policy, Northwestern University
To Order:
Hard copies of IPR working papers cost $5.00 each (international orders are $10 each). We only accept checks drawn on U.S. bank and payable in U.S. funds. Checks or
money orders should be made payable to Northwestern University and sent to
the following address:
Publications Department - WP Orders
Institute for Policy Research
2040 Sheridan Rd., Evanston, IL 60208-4100.
For information, call 847-491-8712 or email ipr@northwestern.edu.
Please note that we do not accept credit cards.
