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WP-95-07

The Persistence of Slack and Tight Labor Markets

Karl Ove Moene, Ragnar Nymoen, and Michael Wallerstein

Abstract

The rate of unemployment differs dramatically among similar countries for long periods of time. In this paper, we present a model that can explain the persistence of both high and low levels of unemployment as a consequence of firms' choice of employment policy. One of the determinants of whether or not firms lay off workers when demand is low is the anticipated difficulty of hiring new workers should demand increase. When unemployment is low, workers are harder to replace and firms are more reluctant to lay off in response to low demand, which keeps unemployment low. When unemployment is high, workers are easily replaced when needed and firms lay off workers more frequently, which maintains high levels of unemployment. We show, using Norwegian data, that the case of replacing workers appears to have a significant impact on both the unemployment vacancy curve and the level of employment.

Karl Ove Moene, Department of Economics, University of Oslo
Ragnar Nymoen, Central Bank of Norway
Michael Wallerstein, Department of Political Science, Northwestern University



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