Uncertainty
and Ambiguity in the 2001 Decision
Against Census Adjustment for Redistricting
Mary
H. Mulry and Bruce D. Spencer
Abstract
The Census Bureau was required by law to release census-population
numbers by April 1, 2001 for states to use in redrawing legislative
district boundaries. The Bureau faced a difficult technical question:
Should those numbers include adjustments for undercount and overcount
in the census? The decision was significant for public policy because
it would affect the sizes and shapes of congressional districts
and other legislative districts for the next ten years. The Bureau
had developed a plan to compare the accuracy of the adjusted and
the unadjusted estimates, and it implemented the plan quite well.
Yet the technical question was complex enough that some components
of accuracy could not be estimated, and certain other components
could be estimated only under some assumptions which themselves
were ambiguous. In this paper we review the evidence as summarized
in the Bureau’s analyses, the associated uncertainties and
ambiguities, and the Bureau’s decision-making. We conclude
with recommendations concerning future census decisions.
Mary H. Mulry, Statistical
consultant Bruce D. Spencer, Department of Statistics, Northwestern
University
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