The capacity of a political system to respond to
the preferences of its citizens is central to democratic theory
and practice. Research and theory about the impact of public opinion
on policymaking has produced decidedly mixed views. A number of
analysts find a strong and persisting impact of public opinion
on public policy. Other analysts reject the idea that the public
has consistent views at all, or even if it does, that those views
exercise much influence over policymaking. Normative aspects of
the opinion/policy link are also controversial. While some analysts
have seen new mechanisms for inserting ordinary citizens’
views into policy debates through the increasing use of polling,
others decry the same processes for their potential to encourage
politicians to “pander” to the public. In this paper,
we review the state-of-the-art in the debates over the opinion/policy
link in the rapidly growing body of research on polls, public
opinion, and policymaking in contemporary American politics. We
think several conclusions can reasonably be drawn. Where measured
public opinion expresses a coherent mood or view on a particular
policy question (or bundle of policy questions) in a way that
is recognizable by political elites, it is more likely than not
that the movement of policy will be in the direction of public
opinion. But two crucial caveats must also be entered. First,
within the broad parameters established by public opinion, politicians
and policy entrepreneurs often have substantial room to maneuver
policy in detailed ways that are not visible to the public. Second,
while public opinion clearly sets important parameters on policymaking,
the combination of contradictory public views on many key policy
issues and the capacity of political elites to shape or direct
citizens’ views significantly reduces the independent causal
impact of public opinion.
Jeff Manza, Department
of Sociology, Northwestern University
Fay Lomax Cook, School of Education and Social
Policy, Northwestern University
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