Given the mounting friction in Washington, can the two parties work together
to repaint the picture of poverty and inequality the president outlined?
If certain pitfalls are avoided, I believe they can. But the concrete
proposals in Bushs budget plan are not entirely encouraging. Many millions of hard-working people were devastated by the economic
troubles of the 1970s and 1980s and then left behind during the billionaire-producing
boom of the 1990s. Today some 11.8% of Americans, about 32 million people
including nearly one-fifth of all our childrenstill live in households
with cash incomes below the meager official poverty line of about $17,000
for a family of four. Remarkably, the top 5% of households now receive,
on the average, more than 24 times as much cash income as the average
household in the bottom fifth. By most measures, the United States has
higher levels of poverty and inequality than virtually any other advanced
industrial country. Much of this lies beyond individuals control, but it can be affectedfor
better or for worseby a variety of government policies. The projected
budget surpluses have provided an exceptional opportunity to craft bipartisan
policies that will reduce poverty and inequality in economically efficient
ways. Unfortunately, some of Bushs proposals may make things worse. To
abolish the estate tax, for example, which is paid on only the very largest
accumulations of wealth, would give a big windfall to those who profited
most from the recent boom. It would reduce government revenues that could
otherwise help the less fortunate. It also would undermine equal opportunity,
reduce charitable contributions, and fail to stimulate the economy as
much as a cut for low-income taxpayers. Similarly, large, across-the-board cuts in the personal income tax would reduce the role of our most progressive tax, give up revenue that could be used for egalitarian purposes (such as keeping guaranteed Social Security benefits up during the impending demographic squeeze), and do less for the economy than a temporary tax cut for low- and middle-income people. Again, the most prominent Social Security privatization and school voucher
plans would tend to increase, rather than decrease, income inequality.
True, it is possible to design strongly pro-poor voucher or privatization
plans, but this is difficult and their political viability is questionable.
Most current proposals would cut the retirement incomes of many vulnerable
citizens and undermine public schools. On a more positive note, education is clearly a promising area for bipartisan
action. President Bush, Secretary of Education Rod Paige, and many congressional
Democrats and Republicans have expressed strong commitments to enhancing
Head Start and improving the public schools that serve disadvantaged students.
Such investments would help disadvantaged people earn more over their
whole lifetimes, while also increasing their contributions to the economy.
I hope we can go well beyond the 11% spending increase proposed in the
Bush budget, which is only about one-third as big as the last Clinton
spending increase. If we are really determined to leave no child behind, however,
we need to do more than provide high-quality pre-schooling and elementary
education. Improvements in the health and nutrition of pregnant women,
infants, and children are even more cost-effective for enhancing lifetime
productivity. The experience of other countries has shown that more equal access to
health care for all citizens can be provided at considerably less cost
than our current system incurs. Prescription drug coverage for all the
elderly cannot be expected to provide much economic payoff but is indicated
for reasons of justice and should be politically feasible. Even efforts to ensure good health and education for all Americans are
not likely to reduce poverty or inequality very much unless jobs at good
wages are available for everyone able to work. Many government policies
affect jobs and wages. Wage subsidies for low-income people like the Earned Income Tax Credit
(EITC) are highly efficient because they encourage work and do not distort
labor markets, while reducing inequality. The EITC has won bipartisan
support and could be expanded, particularly for childless workers. Welfare-to-work
measures that assist with training, placement, transportation, and day
care (mostly at the state level, but likely needing more federal help
as the economy slows) can help many of our poorest citizens improve their
lot. Improving military salaries tends to raise the wages of low-income workers.
So does stimulatory economic policy with low interest rates. On the other
hand, unspent budget surpluses tend to slow the economy and hurt these
workers. In the current political climate, neither fervent egalitarians nor members
of any other ideological faction are likely to get exactly what they want.
But there is room for serious bipartisan action to reduce our high levels
of poverty and inequality. Benjamin I. Page, the Fulcher Professor of Decision Making at Northwestern
University and IPR faculty associate, is co-author with James R. Simmons
of What Government Can Do: Dealing with Poverty and Inequality (University
of Chicago Press, 2000). |